Frank Lampard and the Art of the Penalty Kick

Article published on 2012-06-18 by FootballFactMan of DifferentGame.wordpress.com | Comment |

The 2008 Champions League Final doesn’t hold too many great memories for Chelsea fans, but a lesson learned that night probably held them in good stead for this year’s final.

The book Soccernomics tells the story of Basque economist Ignacio Palacios-Huerta who sent Chelsea the findings of a study (Professionals Play Minimax) he’d made regarding the art of taking the penalty kick. He told them that Edwin van der Sar made a habit of diving to his right if the kicker was right-footed, and diving to his left if the kicker was left-footed. He therefore advised Chelsea to have their takers do the opposite. If you can bear it, look the shoot-out up on Youtube and note Van der Sar gesturing to Anelka before the final penalty once he thinks he’s figured out Chelsea’s strategy (only Ashley Cole ignored the advice until Nicolas Anelka stepped up).

We’ve all since read Petr Cech’s post-Bayern comments about studying his opponents penalty habits on DVD prior to the game and the fact he dived the right way for each spot kick.

The story of Moscow and a friend’s subsequent questioning of Frank Lampard’s penalty habits led me to studying the midfielder’s strategy. It took a while to compile the list, and even longer to find the video footage, but it’s all out there if you look hard enough – even the ones taken in pre-season friendlies.

Clearly he’s never missed one that he’s smashed down the middle. The decision in the Allianz Arena last month was a good one.

Economic game theory suggests right-footed kickers like Lampard should go to the keeper’s right 61.5% of the time.  So what does Lampard do? Is he near the optimum? Split the goal exactly in half and Lampard has sent 70.5% of his penalty kicks that way.

The theory looks like it holds – Lampard’s missed nearly 19% of the kicks he’s put to the keeper’s right and just under 6% of penalties he’s put to the keeper’s left. It looks like it’s time to vary it up a little more.

And for the record, here’s the full list of Frank Lampard penalties for Chelsea:

An updated (January 2013) list of Frank Lampard penalties is available.